Dems Get Good Sign — From Alaska…
While Alaska is traditionally considered to be a red state, Democrats appear to be gaining ground in the next gubernatorial election, according to a new poll surveying potential candidates.
The next Alaskan gubernatorial election will take place in 2026, and with current Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy termed out, the race is wide open.
An Alaska Survey Research poll conducted between September 11 and 12 asked 1,502 residents statewide who they would like to see run in the race, and found a Democrat leading among potential candidates, with two of the top five contenders registered as Democrats.
With the highest share of supporters at 13 percent, Democratic Representative Mary Peltola leads among potential candidates. She has represented Alaska’s at-large congressional district in the House since 2022, first having won a special election to fill the late GOP Representative Don Young’s seat, and then elected to full term.
Trailing Peltola by 5 percentage points at 8 percent is former Republican Governor Sarah Palin, who served in the state’s top post from 2006 until 2009. She campaigned as the vice presidential nominee on Senator John McCain‘s 2008 ticket. Palin unsuccessfully ran against Peltola in the special election for the state’s House seat in 2022.
One percentage point behind Palin, at 7 percent, is Republican Nick Begich, who is currently in a neck-and-neck race against Peltola for her seat this year. According to a partisan poll of 400 likely voters commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee from September 14 to 17, Begich leads Peltola by 4 percentage points, 44 percent to Peltola’s 40 percent. The narrow lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Newsweek has reached out to Peltola and Begich’s press team for comment via email on Friday.
Representative Mary Peltola, an Alaskan Democrat, is seen in Anchorage, Alaska, on September 17, 2022. While Alaska is traditionally considered to be a red state, Democrats appear to be gaining ground in the next gubernatorial election, according to a new poll surveying potential candidates, showing Peltola in the lead.
Patrick T. Fallon/ AFP/ Getty Images
At 6 percent, Republican Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom is tied with former state Representative Les Gara, a Democrat. The Alaska Survey Research potential gubernatorial candidate poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Dahlstrom was backed by former President Donald Trump in her campaign for Pelota’s House seat this year, however she withdrew in late August.
Newsweek filled out an online contact form on Palin’s and Dahlstrom’s website for comment on Friday. Newsweek reached out to Gara via Instagram for comment on Friday.
The state, rated “Solid Republican” in presidential races by the Cook Political Report, has had a handful of Democratic governors, including the state’s first governor Bill Egan.
Another Alaska Survey Research poll from September 11 to 12, following the ABC News debate between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee, showed the Democrat down by 5 points with likely voters in the northwestern state. Harris had the support of 42 percent of respondents whereas Trump had the backing of 47 percent. The poll did not state its margin of error.
The only time a Democratic presidential candidate won Alaska was in 1964 when President Lyndon B. Johnson was elected. The Republican Party has carried the state by comfortable double-digit margins in recent cycles, however, Trump’s margin did shrink in the state between 2016 and 2020. In his first election against Hillary Clinton, he carried the state by nearly 15 points, but that went down to a lead of 10 points when he was up against President Joe Biden.
Correction 9/27/24, 3:57 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to clarify that Palin did not resign for her vice presidential campaign.
