Top 10 states where Trump outperformed in 2024
President-elect Trump flipped six highly competitive states in his election victory last week. But as a Fox News analysis showed last week, his gains with voters were not limited to the battlegrounds.
This list covers the 10 states where Trump most outperformed his 2020 margins.
Notably, conservative strongholds aren’t the only states that made the list. The top 10 also includes deeply Democrat areas. Trump didn’t win these states, but they swung to the right.
Vote counting continues in some highly populated states on this list, including California and New York.
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Donald Trump’s gains in 2024 were not limited to battleground states. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci/File)
1. New York
Note: As of this writing, approximately 3% of ballots have not yet been counted in New York.
- 2020 Winner: Biden +23.1 points
- 2024 Winner: Harris +11.8 points
- Swing toward Trump: 11 points
So far, New York has swung 11 points toward Trump.
New York swung 11 points toward Trump, with the president-elect’s greatest gains being made on Long Island and within New York City. (Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)
The president-elect posted a 6.3-point improvement on his 2020 vote share, while his Democrat opponent, Vice President Harris, slipped by five points.
He gained across the state, with his largest swings in New York City and Long Island.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Harris would win the state. With 97% of the vote counted, she is winning by 12 points.
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2. New Jersey
Note: As of this writing, approximately 1% of ballots have not yet been counted in New Jersey.
- 2020 Winner: Biden +15.9 points
- 2024 Winner: Harris +5.9 points
- Swing toward Trump: 10 points
So far, New Jersey has swung 10 points toward Trump.
The president-elect posted a 4.7-point improvement on his 2020 vote share, while Harris slipped by 5.3 points.
New Jersey saw a 10-point swing toward the president-elect, with Passaic and Union counties, both rife with urban hot spots on New York City’s outskirts, seeing the biggest trends toward him. (iStock)
He gained across New Jersey, with his largest swings in the northeast corner of the state. Hudson and Passaic counties lead the pack.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Harris would win the state. With 99% of the vote counted, she is winning by six points.
3. Florida
- 2020 Winner: Trump +3.3 points
- 2024 Winner: Trump +13.1 points
- Swing toward Trump: 9.8 points
Florida swung 10 points toward Trump.
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The president-elect posted a 4.9-point improvement on his 2020 vote share; Harris slipped by the same amount.
He gained across the state. The most notable swing was in Miami-Dade County, which flipped to the GOP for the first time since 1988.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Trump would win the state. With the results certified, he won by 13 points.
President-elect Trump won Florida by 13.1% of the vote, flipping Miami-Dade County red among numerous others. (iStock)
4. Massachusetts
- 2020 Winner: Biden +33.6 points
- 2024 Winner: Harris +24.8 points
- Swing toward Trump: 8.8 points
Massachusetts swung nine points toward Trump.
The president-elect posted a 4.2-point improvement on his 2020 vote share and Harris slipped by 4.6 points.
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He gained across the state, with double-digit swings in Suffolk County, which includes Boston, and Bristol County.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Harris would win the state. With 99% of the vote counted, she is winning by 25 points.
5. California
Note: As of this writing, approximately 5% of ballots have not yet been counted in California.
- 2020 Winner: Biden +29.2 points
- 2024 Winner: Harris +20.6 points
- Swing toward Trump: 8.6 points
So far, California has swung nine points toward Trump.
Vice President Harris didn’t see a home-field advantage in her native California, which swung some 8.6% toward her opponent. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria)
The president-elect posted a 3.8-point improvement on his 2020 vote share as Harris slipped by 4.8 points.
He gained in many areas across the state, including the two most populated cities, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Harris would win the state. With 95% of the vote counted, she is winning by 21 points.
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6. Texas
- 2020 Winner: Trump +5.6 points
- 2024 Winner: Trump +13.9 points
- Swing toward Trump: 8.3 points
Texas swung eight points toward Trump.
The president-elect posted a 4.2-point improvement on his 2020 vote share; Harris slipped by roughly the same amount.
Texans, particularly those in the Rio Grande Valley, decisively swung right in their voting habits this year, disappointing Democrats hoping for big gains in the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Austin suburbs. (Callaghan OHare/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
He gained across Texas, with the largest swings concentrated in the southern parts of the state. Webb County, for example, home to Laredo, moved 25 points toward Trump. That gave Republicans their first win there in over a century.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Trump would win the state. With 99% of the vote counted, he is winning by 14 points.
7. Mississippi
Note: As of this writing, approximately 2% of ballots have not yet been counted in Mississippi.
- 2020 Winner: Trump +16.5 points
- 2024 Winner: Trump +24.3 points
- Swing toward Trump: 7.8 points
So far, Mississippi has swung eight points toward Trump.
The president-elect posted a four-point improvement on his 2020 vote share; Harris slipped by roughly the same amount.
He gained across the state, including in Yazoo County, a majority-Black county that last voted for the GOP in 2004.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Trump would win the state. With 98% of the vote counted, he is winning by 24 points.
8. Rhode Island
- 2020 Winner: Biden +20.9 points
- 2024 Winner: Harris +13.6 points
- Swing toward Trump: 7.3 points
Rhode Island swung seven points toward Trump.
Rhode Island saw a 7.3% swing in Trump’s favor, with gains being observed across the state, including in its capital, Providence. (Visions of America/Joseph Sohm/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
The president-elect posted a 3.3-point improvement on his 2020 vote share, while Harris slipped by four points.
He gained across the state, led by Providence, the city’s highest-populated area.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Harris would win the state. With 98% of the vote counted, she is winning by 14 points.
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9. Tennessee
- 2020 Winner: Trump +23.2 points
- 2024 Winner: Trump +29.7 points
- Swing toward Trump: 6.5 points
Tennessee swung 6.5 points toward Trump.
The president-elect posted a 3.5-point improvement on his 2020 vote share, while Harris slipped by three points.
Tennessee swung decisively in Trump’s favor despite worrying trends for Republicans in suburban Nashville in recent years. Trousdale County, situated just outside the metro area, swung toward the president-elect by double digits. (iStock)
He gained across the state, including a double-digit swing in Trousdale County, a rural area outside the Nashville metropolitan area.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Trump would win the state. With 99% of the vote counted, he is winning by 30 points.
10. Illinois
Note: As of this writing, approximately 1% of ballots have not yet been counted in Illinois.
- 2020 Winner: Biden +16.9 points
- 2024 Winner: Harris +10.6 points
- Swing toward Trump: 6.3 points
So far, Illinois has swung six points toward Trump.
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The president-elect posted a 3.4-point improvement on his 2020 vote share; Harris slipped by 2.9 points.
He gained across Illinois, with a notable eight-point swing in Cook County, home to Chicago.
On election night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Harris would win the state. With 99% of the vote counted, she is winning by 11 points.
